With a big win in West Virginia, Hillary is once again out trying to make the argument that she is the candidate that can win in November. That it doesn’t look like she can convince her own party members of that aside, the super-delegates and other behind-the-scenes-lever-pullers have to be sceptical.
“Barack Obama can’t even win West Virginia, how can he win the country?” they say.
The simple answer is that the country itself is not 95 percent white, with less than 30 percent attending college. In the last election WV was solidly in the Red column. I can’t help but think that between WV and KY (both at 55-60% Republican) that there are better states to be bellwethers for the Democratic Party.
Of course, as a loyal member of the Democratic Party, I have absolute confidence in our ability to put up a candidate who cannot win a General Election.
We’ve done it with great regularity for the last 25 years with only one notable exception. Which pinpoints what we, as a party, are missing when it comes to selecting our candidates: Bill won because he was adept at being the Smilin’ Southern Son while at the same time utilizing his incredible intelligence to make someone opposing him look simpleminded. He was smart and like-able.
We have lost plenty of elections with ’smart’, but we are doing pretty well in the last few decades when we can find ‘like-able’ (Clinton and Carter?).
Look back at the Democratic contenders of the last 25 years – Mondale, the Duke, Gore (admittedly now very like-able, but not so much on the campaign trail), and Kerry – there’s not a truly like-able person in the lot. Compare that to the successful Republican tickets in those races, Reagan, Bush 1, Bush 2 – none of them barn-burners in terms of intellectual prowess, original thought, or in once case even the English Language. But they all had winning smiles, an easy demeanor, and even kissing scenes with Hollywood starlets in one case.
This brings me to key point #1: John McCain is not really like-able. I am not saying that he doesn’t have friends, or that his mother doesn’t love him; I’d be reasonably certain that both of those statements are incorrect. I am saying that he doesn’t make you feel at ease – like you could sit down with him, tell him your problems, get a sympathetic ear, and then throw some darts and drink a beer. Sen. McCain’s empathy probably couldn’t fill a shot glass. He is smart, and assertive, heroic, occasionally persuasive, and hard-working as all get-out. You have to respect the guy, but he’s almost impossible to like.
But, Sen. McCain is the Republican nominee; which brings me to point #2: Democrats can win if they put up a like-able candidate.
There is already a fantastic tide that has mounted against Republicans. Despite the fact that Democrats have had the Congress for the past couple years and blown any chance of putting Bush on the defensive and getting good things done, they are still not the party of the President. Which is such a good thing by now – after almost eight years of veritable incompetence – that their ineffectuality has been largely ignored. Add to that, a candidate from the Republican party that is only slightly more like-able than Dick Cheney, and you have the perfect recipe for the Democratic takeover.
But we need someone like-able to ensure that.
So here it is again. As posted yesterday. Hillary (D) = Dick (R).
Or, in less mathematical terms – no one actually likes Hillary. At this point, I would almost bet that Bill is in that category too. Again – like McCain – you can respect her, agree with her, admire her tenacity, want a woman in the White House, support her, even get your hair cut like her; you just can’t really like her.
It seemed like there was a chance once. Do you remember a while back when she cried. (I think it was the first and last time ever, so it’s easy to denote.) She got a great bump in the polls. People thought for a second that she might be human, and that the iron maiden bit may not be the whole story… Of course given the way that everything has gone since then I would be more likely to believe that it was a contrived stunt; something she was test-marketing to see what she could get out of it and the numbers didn’t pan out.
Of course, Sen. Obama is not cuddly, not plain-spoken, not folksy. He isn’t your traditional Republican version of like-able. But he is the kind of guy that you could shoot a round of eight-ball with while drinking a beer and complaining about your job. He’d roll up his sleeves, toss the tie in a ball on one of those elevated benches that seem to be in every pool hall. He’d sound like an Ivy-Leaguer, but he’d listen and engage you. Heck, if you’re lucky Obama Girl might even show up and you could get a picture with her to make all your buddies jealous.
“Great,” you say. “But you sound like a high-school kid with a C average trying to explain a very complex process.”
True, but that’s why I’m right. And I have proof.
Well, calling it proof may be going a bit far. But I have two Reaganite-Religious Right-Republican parents. And they both voted for Obama in Illinois, and both are considering him in November. Neither one of them would cast a vote for Hillary under pain of death.
Coming from “The Flyover States” (I always thought that label was great), I can say with reasonable surety that while Hillary can grab registered Democrats in key districts and states, but that she doesn’t have the appeal that will bring in enough swing voters, independents, Republican housewives, and all the other micro-niches that you need to break your way to win a tight election. They don’t want her to win. They may want her ideas, or her gender, her name (almost like another term for Bill), or a host of other things that she represents to win, but they don’t want her.
As additional support for this argument, I note the early opinion polls that came out when Hillary was first announcing her candidacy. Among registered Democrats her favorables were 35 percent. As far as I know the only candidates to win their party’s nomination and the presidency with opinion ratings that low when they announced their candidacy have been complete unknowns – governors of small states or other obscure party members. The problem is that EVERYONE knew Hillary and they still didn’t choose her.
Barack has the stuff. He’s smart, well educated, articulate, etc. He’s everything that a Democrat really wants in a candidate regardless of small particulars on some issues. He’s become a cultural phenomena to the point where I’m just waiting for the HopeMan action figure to come out (don’t worry, he’ll have freaky pecs and biceps in doll form so as not to too look odd among the other figures).
And if you’re looking for middle America, look no further than the Oprah show. Oprah loves the guy.
Obama really can win the General. Clinton probably can’t.
